Infectious Disease

15 million people can lose Medicaid coverage if the public health emergency ends

September 21, 2021

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A new report showed that approximately 15 million Americans who signed up for public health services with Medicaid during the emergency could lose insurance coverage if the declaration of emergency ends.

Those at risk who lose coverage include nearly 9 million adults and 6 million children, according to analysis published by the Urban Institute with support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

“There is good evidence that Medicaid coverage saves lives and increases family financial stability. Not being insured would be detrimental to both, “Matthew Buettgens, PhD, senior fellow at the Health Policy Center at Urban Institute, told Healio Primary Care.” Many of those who lose Medicaid are eligible for other types of health insurance, and states can significantly reduce the number of uninsured by providing effective help and support. “

Buettgens and co-author Andrew Green, MSDSPP, research analyst at the Health Policy Center at Urban Institute, analyzed state enrollment patterns from February 2020 through January 2021 using Medicaid enrollment data from CMS and individual Medicaid state websites for all available months in the Years 2020 and 2021 You forecast possible exit scenarios for 2022.

By the end of the second quarter of 2020, approximately 62.5 million non-elderly were enrolled with Medicaid. After this period, enrollment increased by about 1% every month. Büttgens and Green assume that this trend will continue as long as the emergency declaration is still in force. By the second quarter of 2021, approximately 72 million non-elderly were enrolled.

In addition, Büttgens and Green estimated that 17 million more non-elderly people will be enrolled at Medicaid by the end of 2021 than before the pandemic. According to Büttgens and Green, an estimated 76.3 million people under the age of 65 would be enrolled.

In a scenario where the emergency declaration is lifted in late 2021, the researchers predict that 15 million people would lose coverage by 2022, while a third of adults would potentially be eligible for subsidized private health insurance in the healthcare marketplace. Those remaining without insurance would likely have access to employer protection through their families or would be eligible for other subsidized insurance sources, the authors wrote. If the American Rescue Plan Act is made permanent, a third of adults who lose coverage would be eligible for Marketplace Premium Tax Credits.

According to the authors, of the children who lose insurance coverage, only 57% would be entitled to the children’s health insurance program and 9% to marketplace coverage with tax credits. These alternatives to Medicaid will likely cost families much more, Büttgens and Green wrote. They forecast that 7 million people will be de-registered in the first half of 2022.

However, the tax breaks would make private health insurance more affordable, said Büttgens.

“If a patient has lost Medicaid, a doctor might suggest that they check with HealthCare.gov or their state marketplace to see if they qualify,” he said.

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