Public Health

The rate of Covid infection in the UK is increasing. Here’s why

Two Manchester City football club fans stand out for wearing face masks during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Burnley on October 16, 2021.

Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA | Getty Images Sports | Getty Images

LONDON – As the Covid-19 pandemic hit the world in 2020, the UK was hit hard, reporting some of the highest case numbers and deaths in Europe. However, a rapid vaccination program turned the tide and brought the cases under control.

Now the situation looks dramatically different. The country is seeing nearly 50,000 new Covid cases every day – meaning it has one of the lowest daily infection rates in the world.

49,156 new cases were registered on Monday, the highest number in three months, bringing the total number of cases in the UK to over 8.4 million. The country also reported 45 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test, bringing the total death toll to 138,629 – one of the highest death tolls in the world.

Meanwhile, hospital stays and deaths have been on the rise since the summer when Covid restrictions were lifted in England on July 19th. Pubs, restaurants, and nightclubs reopened, and wearing masks became (for the most part) voluntary.

Read more: England takes the leap into the unknown and repeals Covid rules if cases increase

Fortunately, the number of hospital admissions and deaths has increased much more slowly than it did earlier in the pandemic, largely due to the fact that Covid vaccines are highly effective in preventing serious infections, hospital admissions and deaths.

Nonetheless, medical professionals from the country’s National Health Service are warning of a harsh winter.

What’s happening?

Experts say there are a myriad of reasons behind the UK’s high Covid numbers – from half-hearted mask adoption (even when masks are required, like on public transport, the rule is rarely enforced) to large indoor gatherings that spread the virus.

The UK’s reluctance to vaccinate younger adolescents, which other countries in Europe and the US did much earlier, and returning to schools in September were also cited as reasons for the surge in cases, despite the infection boom at 0- bis dates show that 18-year-olds are now subsiding as infections increase in their parents’ generation.

People watching al fresco dining in Soho, London in September 2021. People have flocked to the streets, shops and public spaces again since the UK’s Covid restrictions were lifted.

SOPA pictures | LightRakete | Getty Images

Perhaps most ironically, the early adoption of vaccination in the UK – which began in December 2020 and was one of the first in the world – is now also adding to its high case rate.

This is because we now know – from an increasing amount of data – that immunity in vaccinated people declines after about six months. The spread of the much more contagious Delta-Covid variant in spring and summer is also seen as a factor that has reduced the effectiveness of the vaccine.

Dr. Eric Topol, Founder and Director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted his assessment of the UK situation on Saturday, stating, “Why does the UK currently have 6 times hospital admissions and a 3 times higher death rate compared to Europe? ? Under [the] possible explanations, two that stand out, are less mitigation and immunization in children ages 12-17. “

He noted that reliance on the AstraZeneca vaccine (which has declined slightly more in effectiveness over time than the Pfizer vaccine) is cited as another possible factor.

“Another possible explanation is that the UK was vaccinated earlier than the rest of Europe and therefore protection is significantly reduced, especially for the elderly,” he noted. On the positive side, Topol “did the UK far better than the US in decoupling hospital admissions and deaths.”

Given what we know about dwindling immunity, the UK (like Israel, the US and other countries in Europe) decided in September to introduce booster vaccinations for those over 50, healthcare workers and anyone with pre-existing conditions.

Those who received their second dose at least six months ago are asked to report first. Currently, around 6.5 million people in England are entitled to a booster vaccination, with the NHS having given around 3.6 million booster injections to date, data shows.

Experts have urged the government to step up vaccinations in unvaccinated groups, especially among young people, and to roll out boosters more quickly. They also warned against complacency this winter or reliance on a controversial “herd immunity” strategy.

“The UK seems to be slowly becoming aware of the fact that Covid cases are too high, but the reality is that they have been skyrocketing for months and many countries have put us on their red list,” said Tim Spector. Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London and The lead scientist of the ZOE COVID study app, which collects and analyzes Covid data, stated last week.

“Infections remain high among young people and seem to spread to 35 to 55 year olds. If those increases creep into those over 55, it could spell disaster for the NHS this winter, ”he noted. “With cases this high, it’s clear there is no herd immunity, and the risk is that most people will continue to believe they are safe if they’ve had Covid or a vaccine … we have to do everything we can to get them all double vaccinated and no longer waiting for herd immunity to occur through natural infection. “

Variant worries

There are also growing concerns about a descendant of the Delta Covid variant being identified in more and more UK Covid cases, with some suggesting that this could be another possible factor behind the rising case numbers.

Last Friday, the UK Health and Safety Authority released a report stating that “a delta subline newly designated AY.4.2 is expanding in England” and that it is monitoring the subtype.

“This subline is currently increasing in frequency. It includes the spike mutations A222V and Y145H. In the week beginning September 27, 2021 (the last week with full sequencing data), this subline accounted for approximately 6% of all generated sequences on an increasing trajectory . That estimate may be inaccurate … Another assessment is ongoing, “she noted.

Former Commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Scott Gottlieb also tweeted about the subtype over the weekend.

“The UK reported its largest one-day increase in Covid cases in 3 months, just as the new Delta variant AY.4 with the S: Y145H mutation at the spike hit 8% of sequenced cases in the UK,” wrote Dr. Gottlieb. “We need urgent research to find out if this delta plus is more transmissible, has partial immune evasion?”

The delta subtype, officially known as AY.4.2, is said to be 10-15% more transmissible than the standard delta variant, but it’s too early to be sure if it has caused a surge in cases in the UK

Imperial College London professor of immunology Danny Altmann told CNBC on Monday that the subtype “needs to be monitored and carefully controlled as much as possible.”

“Since Delta has been the dominant mutant in several regions for about six months and has not been displaced by other variants, there was hope that Delta might be represented [the] Maximum performance of the mutation that the virus can achieve. AY.4 could cast doubt on this claim, “he warned.

The UK was often seen as a harbinger for other countries during the pandemic, as the alpha variant was first discovered in the UK. it then became a dominant strain of the virus worldwide.

The same thing later happened with the even more contagious Delta variant, which was first found in India but then caught on in the UK before spreading around the world.

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