Infectious Disease

Fashions predict that local weather change can be answerable for 1000’s extra deaths by 2095

January 08, 2021

2 min read

ADD SUBJECT TO EMAIL ALARMS

Receive an email when new articles are published

Please enter your email address to receive an email when new articles are published . “data-action =” subscribe “> subscribe

We could not process your request. Please try again later. If you continue to have this problem, please contact customerservice@slackinc.com.

Back to Healio

By 2095, compared to 2000, the United States may experience an additional 21,000 deaths due to an increase in particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter, a recent model showed.

A second model predicted that an increase in ozone levels between 2000 and 2095 could cause about 4,100 more deaths in the United States.

Reference: Fann NL et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2021; doi: 10.1001 / jamanetworkopen.2020.32064.

Neal L. Found, MPP, A team leader within the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality Planning and Standards Office and colleagues wrote their findings: “Reducing air pollutant emissions could mitigate, but not eliminate, the increase in air pollution mortality caused by climate change.”

Researchers used scaled-down versions of high-warming scenarios from global climate models known as the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Coupled Model Version 3 (CM3). They also used a chemical transport model to estimate particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations (O3) using an air pollutant emissions dataset from 2011 and a projection of 2040, and census data from different years in the 21st century .

“To the extent that these risks are sensitive to meteorologically influenced behavioral variables (such as the use of air conditioning), using these parameters to estimate future changes in risk may underestimate or overestimate the effects,” wrote Fann and colleagues.

The researchers found that by 2095 and compared to 2000, an estimated 21,000 (95% CI, 14,000–28,000) additional deaths could be attributed to PM2.5 and 4,100 (95% CI, 2,200–6,000) additional deaths in each climate model occur. The relative numbers of preventable premature deaths related to climate-related change varied across regions of the United States. In addition, projections decreased to an estimated 15,000 (95% CI, 10,000-20,000) additional deaths attributable to PM2.5 and 640 (95% CI, 340-940) additional deaths related to O3 if a future one Emissions inventory was reduced. Anthropogenic emissions were used.

In a related editorial Patrick Kinney, ScD, The professor of environmental health at Boston University School of Public Health said there was “significant uncertainty” with the models used in the study, but the results still play “a critical role in helping society anticipate, prepare, and idealize.” Mitigating “adverse health effects of our rapidly changing climate. “

“While it is encouraging that the potential health benefits that Fann et al. Show that by implementing the rules already in the books can be achieved by 2040, we need to do more to reduce the health impacts caused by air pollution while still taking into account the impact of the impending climate crisis, ”he wrote.

References:

ADD SUBJECT TO EMAIL ALARMS

Receive an email when new articles are published

Please enter your email address to receive an email when new articles are published . “data-action =” subscribe “> subscribe

We could not process your request. Please try again later. If you continue to have this problem, please contact customerservice@slackinc.com.

Back to Healio

Related Articles